Why write about sprawl? Sprawl is an emotionally charged topic, as are speculation, growth and leapfrogging. (Leapfrogging entails landowners holding back land that has a current agricultural or lower-density use such that development must leapfrog over the site and occur at more remote locations, thus creating gaps in the urban fabric.) These four topics are related but distinct. Appreciating the differences should matter to investors, governments, households and firms.

Why should investors care? Investors are vitally concerned about uncertainty and whether prices reflect this uncertainty. What causes uncertainty? How does uncertainty promote sprawl and leapfrogging? What is the role of local government? How can investors mitigate uncertainty?

Public sentiment deplores the degradation of the national landscape. Unfortunately, the response of local government is often counterproductive, if not self-serving.

How does population growth affect the shape of a hypoth