U.S. retail projections remain unchanged through 2026 in a just-released forecast from CoStar.
Consistent with the previous forecast, which had U.S. retail vacancy peaking at just under 4.4 percent, the metric is expected to rise minimally in the first half of 2026 before falling slightly during the latter half of the year and into 2027.
Though receding, store closures are expected to increase in the first half of 2026 as the bifurcated retail sales environment pushes certain tenants to trim locations. Full-year net absorption is forecasted to total just more than 16 million square feet, which would be the third-lowest level of annual demand formation
