Principal’s Rich Hill: Recovery is underway, but dispersion is growing
by Andrea Zander
U.S. commercial real estate is in the early stages of recovery, but the next phase of the cycle is likely to differ meaningfully from past rebounds. Rich Hill, senior managing director and global head of research and strategy at Principal Real Estate, said in an interview with IREI that rather than a broad-based recovery, he expects a more uneven, K-shaped pattern, with performance increasingly driven by sector, market and asset-level selection. In this environment, returns are expected to rely less on financial tailwinds and more on underlying property fundamentals, particularly net operating income and active asset management. As a result, he sees greater dispersion emerging across strategies, with outcomes increasingly tied to manager skill, selectivity and execution rather than scale alone.