Research Reports

In their latest report, AEW addresses a longstanding question: What do prime market returns mean for European real estate fund investors? To answer this, AEW converted their latest projected European prime market returns of 8.1% per annum for the period 2025-2029 into a new European fund-level return projection of 7.1% for the same timeframe, reconciling how the two different returns are defined. Additionally, AEW back tested their historical prime market returns. This analysis confirmed that their top 25% of markets, ranked by projected returns, consistently outperformed the average of all European markets by 260 to 420 basis points during the historical forecast periods for which a full 5-year actual return is available.

The U.S. power sector is undergoing unprecedented growth and transformation, primarily driven by four key trends: 1) A surge in data center energy demand creating unprecedented consumption patterns. 2) Transformative federal policy changes introducing new legislative frameworks. 3) Infrastructure constraints and regulatory challenges limiting supply growth. 4) Developers encountering rising capital costs due to elevated interest rates. These intersecting factors are creating both challenges and strategic investment opportunities in the power market space.

Demand for data centers is booming. In primary markets, available capacity is minimal, driving vacancy rates to historic lows, less than 2% in most markets. At the same time, new development has been increasingly constrained. Lead times for critical equipment such as transformers, switches and generators and long delays for permitting and power interconnection have doubled timelines in many cases. Now, with exponentially more demand from the AI revolution, power and land itself is in short supply in many primary markets. Suitable sites with a clear path to permitting and access to utility power are increasingly scarce. In some, Dublin and Amsterdam for example, regulators have imposed moratoriums on new data center builds due to a lack of power infrastructure.

Housing supply is tight in the Midwest and Northeast; inventory is building up in the Sun Belt. The “lock-in” effect from low mortgage rates in 2020–2021 is limiting mobility and we expect this to continue impacting home sales through the end of 2027. We project a -1.5% change in home prices in 2025 (currently -0.4% YTD), as measured by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, followed by +0.5% price growth in 2026. We expect price declines to be concentrated in the South and California, with Florida experiencing the steepest drop. More cautious homebuilder sentiment is causing falling construction starts. We expect falling new supply and favorable demographic trends in the Sun Belt to support stronger price growth in 2027 and beyond. Despite near-term price softness, strong consumer fundamentals, elevated rates and limited credit availability present a favorable backdrop for residential lending.

Fundamentals will be a primary driver of total returns versus the post-Global Financial Crisis financially engineered returns which were driven by historically low interest rates. We believe property and market selection are therefore paramount. Uncover opportunities amidst the evolving macroeconomic environment and the commercial real estate investment landscape.

Two years after CapitaLand Investment's (CLI) publication of our first research paper on Asia Pacific (APAC) Private Credit, institutional interest in the sector continues to accelerate. Amid tighter financial conditions and higher regulatory constraints faced by traditional lenders, borrowers are turning to private credit for faster execution, flexible structures, and customized solutions. Within this landscape, real estate (RE) private credit is emerging as a key growth segment, supported by APAC’s rapid urbanization, rising refinancing needs, and evolving capital requirements.

Real estate credit loans offer advantages through floating rates and income generation, providing portfolio flexibility while potentially reducing risks from interest rate changes and economic slowdowns. These characteristics, along with supportive market fundamentals and favorable lending conditions from banks, make real estate credit well-positioned to navigate through today’s uncertainties.

Non‑fund investment structures in private real estate, like co‑investments, club deals, and joint ventures, may offer lower fees and greater LP control. They provide better alignment, flexibility, and quicker capital deployment than traditional funds. Customized for legal, tax, and ESG needs, NFIs can offer strong deal access and diversification, allowing investors to target high‑conviction opportunities tailored to their needs.

We believe that US real estate is no longer merely poised for a cycle turn—it is already stepping onto a firmer path. Asset values have largely completed their reset, and early-cycle price discovery continues to fuel the momentum of high conviction capital. Finding Clarity through the Clouds in the dawning upcycle of US commercial real estate requires finding adequate signal through the noise. In the first half of 2025, we have seen larger-thannormal shifts in macroeconomic conditions, global trade relationships, increasing geopolitical tensions and escalation of conflicts—these are only a few contributors of noise the impedes the ability to see signal. Our view: 2025 rewards managers who convert today’s high conviction themes into decisive capital deployment. We believe the outlook is most attractive for living strategies (i.e., multifamily, build-to-rent, seniors), modern small-bay logistics & advanced manufacturing, and private real-estate credit.

NYCEDC's monthly report that assembles and highlights data from key sources to measure the strength of New York City's economy. In this month's edition: NYC unemployment fell to 4.7%, marking the sixth straight month of improvement; and the city reached another record high for private sector jobs. Read the full Snapshot for more of the latest data.