When does a trend become recognisable as such? When enough people have seen some significance in a progression of numbers or statements or events? When enough time has passed? When someone declares a trend to be so? With an economic recession, for example, it’s quite straightforward — two consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers, and you’ve got yourself a recession. You may not want one, but you’ve got one. We’ve had one and, with people talking more openly now about the possibility of a double-dip situation as economic growth falters, we may get another one.
From the Current Issue
Hotel developers, owners and operators are still trying to recover from the economic trough in hotel performance while also focusing on an appropriate strategy in terms of brand, product, deal structure and location to be well positioned for the recovery.
Safety in numbers is a natural instinct that pervades every aspect of life, from herds of herbivores seeking protection against roving predators on the Serengeti to clumps of male teenagers cowering together seeking protection against roving bands of girls at the school dance. There is a comfort and assurance that goes hand in hand with following the group, assuaging concerns that you might be headed in the wrong direction or face danger alone. In the investment world, when huddled in a group there is much less risk of failure. There is also the distinct possibility that you will not succeed.
The first week of October 2010 could be remembered as a very significant week in the history of commercial property investment, both in the United Kingdom and further afield. It was a week that saw the latest step in a line of innovative developments that have driven the growth of the property derivatives market over the years.
2008 was the year of the Banking Collapse. 2009 was the year of the Great Recession. 2010 was the year of the Government-Sponsored Recovery. 2011 is likely to be the year of Facing Consequences.
Graeme Newell is professor of real estate investment at the University of Western Sydney in Australia. He is also currently executive director of the International Real Estate Society. Newell has strong links to the real estate industry, both in Australia and overseas, and recently prepared a major report for APREA, the Asia Pacific Real Estate Association, titled The Significance of Real Estate in Asian Pension Funds.The findings were presented in September at VIP – Asia Investor Roundtable, a conference jointly sponsored by Institutional Real Estate, Inc and APREA. Jennifer Molloy, editor of The Letter – Europe’s sister publication The Letter – Asia Pacific,spoke with Newell to discuss the findings.