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The horse latitudes: Real estate is becalmed — but for how long?
- October 1, 2017: Vol. 9, Number 9

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The horse latitudes: Real estate is becalmed — but for how long?

by Geoffrey Dohrmann

When a ship entered the horse latitudes during the age of sail-powered sea travel, it entered a zone characterised by becalmed waters and still winds. A ship could languish in these waters for weeks, or even months, before a breath of wind finally stirred its sails and provided the crew with a means of escape. Unsure of specifically when the winds would reappear, captains often were forced to jettison surplus freight — usually livestock — to conserve supplies of both fodder and fresh water.

We seem to have entered the horse latitudes of the current real estate investment cycle in the United States. Pricing for core assets continues to languish near historic highs. Supply and demand remain in relative balance, for the most part. Lender discipline has curtailed the kind of unbridled speculative development that could lead to overbuilding anytime soon. Interest rates, although having risen slightly over the past 24 months, remain low, and the cost of carrying assets, therefo

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