The Balance Is Shifting
As we enter the second half of 2009, it is clear that we remain in a dramatic period for the global economy. The outlook across developed and emerging economies is mixed, and different regions are already performing differently as a result. It is becoming increasingly probable that the global recession will be followed by a period of slower economic growth than in the past two decades unless economic policies and technological innovation move the world economy to a new growth trajectory.
In the largest, developed markets, a key risk is a relapse in demand as fiscal stimulus packages are removed, and a high degree of uncertainty as to whether at that point greater credit availability and increased consumer confidence will be enough to support sustained growth. For many sectors, recovery is expected to be supported by replacement demand. This juncture is likely to mark a further step in the ascendancy of emerging markets, as they should continue to ben