A new normal: The outlook for European real estate in 2017
2016 saw two major political shocks in the form of the United Kingdom’s vote on its membership of the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Surging populism across Europe and further elections this year in the Netherlands, France and Germany mean that increased political and economic uncertainty is likely to characterise 2017.
Against this backdrop, what are the key themes driving European real estate markets, and what strategies should investors adopt? With many of Trump’s campaign proposals already being channelled into executive action, we expect US protectionism that could encourage the strengthening of non-EU trade relationships with the United Kingdom. The US Federal Reserve is the only major central bank pursuing a tightening policy, and this divergence is expected to lead to volatility in the capital markets, most notably in the bond market.
The post-Brexit UK landscape will be shaped by the final deal but long-term low g