The US commercial real estate market is moving into a new phase, and global investors should take note. After several years of higher interest rates, reduced transaction volume, widening bid-ask spreads, refinancing pressure and uneven property performance, the market is shifting from broad repricing towards selective recovery. The key word is “selective”.
Capital is returning first to assets where investors can identify durable income, manageable capital requirements, limited new supply and a credible path to value creation. High-quality multifamily, modern industrial, necessity-oriented retail, selected alternative sectors and digital infrastructure continue to attract interest. Commodity office buildings, highly leveraged properties, assets with substantial deferred maintenance and investments dependent on aggressive rent growth remain under pressure.
The defining feature of this cycle is not simply lower values. It is the widening dispersion of outcomes across
