Affordability constraints continue to limit the number of buyers willing and able to make home purchases, even as listings of for-sale homes rise, according to the June 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. As such, the ESR Group downgraded its total home sales forecast to 4.82 million in 2024, representing a modest 1.3 percent annual gain compared to the previously projected 2.8 percent. Home sales have remained weaker than expected despite the recent rise in listings, which may indicate that many homeowners are no longer willing to delay moving due to the so-called “lock-in effect” — perhaps in part due to a general upward recalibration in mortgage rate expectations by consumers following the historically low mortgage rates of
