U.S. GDP growth revised up to 1.3% in Q1

First-quarter 2023 GDP growth has been revised upward to an annual rate of 1.3 percent, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is 0.2 percentage points higher than the advance estimate of first-quarter GDP growth released in April.

The higher estimate of GDP growth largely is due to an upward revision to private inventory investment. Upward revisions also were seen in state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, consumer spending and exports. These were partly offset by a downward revision to residential fixed investment and an upward revision to imports.

The slightly stronger economic performance in the first quarter has not removed the threat of recession later in the year. In a rapid reaction comment, Oxford Economics noted, “Our forecast is for a recession to start in Q3, but odds are that w