U.S. consumer confidence improved again in July

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June.

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — improved to 160.0 (1985=100) from 155.3 last month. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80 — the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year-end.

“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,” said Dana Peterson