U.S. commercial real estate returns are expected to improve in 2027 as declining construction activity supports occupancy and income growth, according to MetLife Investment Management’s “U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook — H2 2026.” The firm forecasts gross unleveraged total returns of 5 percent in 2026 and 6.4 percent in 2027.
MetLife expects income growth to strengthen across property sectors in the next two years as shrinking construction pipelines limit new supply. Senior housing, retail net lease, manufactured housing, malls and medical office properties are projected to be the top-performing sectors.
