RCLCO real estate sentiment increases slightly, risk of an impending recession remains

The RCLCO Current Real Estate Market Sentiment Index (RMI), which measures sentiment on a 100-point scale, has increased 10.7 points to 19 during the past six months. The index has improved somewhat since the end of 2022 but remains in the zone indicating challenging market conditions – an RMI of less than 40 typically is consistent with a period of real estate market distress/recession.

Survey respondents predict that a national economic recession is imminent. The vast majority (84 percent) believe there will be a recession in the next two years, and 47 percent believe it will occur within the next 12 months. Nearly a third (29 percent) believe we already are in one, and the remaining 8 percent predict it will occur in 13 months to 24 months.

One potential silver lining is that the majority of respondents anticipate that the looming recession will likely be of shallow to moderate depth (0 percent to – 2 percent GDP).

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