For the first time in years, the office market has headline numbers that genuinely look better, according to Lee & Associates. The United States posted a modest annual net absorption gain in 2025, the first since 2019. Leasing picked up. Activity in top-tier buildings improved in several major markets.
But the rebound is narrower than it looks. The better question is not whether office is “back” or still “broken,” but where it is actually healing, why there, and why so much of the market is not participating. The answer lies in four forces: a widening split between high-quality and lower-quality buildings, uneven office-using employment growth, differences in workplace strategy, and a supply environment far more constrained than in past cycles.
Manhattan is the clearest example of a defensible rebound. Leasing reached nearly 42 million square feet in 2025, including 10 million square feet in the fourth quarter alone. Availability fell to 13.9 percent, its l
