Leading indicators of the potential long-term effects of COVID-19 on CRE

Martha Peyton, is the managing director of Real Assets Applied Research at Aegon Asset Management. In a Q&A with IREI, Peyton discusses how consumer behavior is informing CRE trends, how macroeconomic factors are coming in to play and the outlook for investment performance in 2021.

What is the outlook for commercial real estate in the United States at present, given decreasing hospitalizations and the rapid rollout of vaccines?

The outlook for CRE investment performance in 2021 is improving. The latest PREA consensus projects a 3.8 percent total return for the year and, and in my judgment, that is attainable. Net operating income in the apartment sector will strengthen as the COVID relief package rolls out and shores up