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Research - MARCH 20, 2020

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Forecast: coronavirus pandemic inflicts a short, sharp recession on the global economy

by Andrea Zander

The world economy, and many major national economies, will enter a deep recession during first half 2020, forecasts Oxford Economics. In the first quarter 2020, the global economy will contract at a faster pace than during the financial crisis, with a fall of some 2 percent in world GDP, and Oxford Economics forecasts a further 0.4 percent fall in global GDP in the second quarter.

With a zero growth projection for 2020, it will be the second-weakest year for the global economy in almost 50 years of comparable data, with only 2009, in the depths of the global financial crisis, being worse, predicts Oxford Economics.

In the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to profound, pervasive and persistent, but not permanent, reductions in activity, with widespread cuts in social spending, severe disruptions to supply chains, and a major interruption in travel and tourism activity. The U.S. economy will shrink by 0.2 percent in 2020 as a whole, compared with the 1.7 per

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