Retail spending for 2021–22 is forecasted to grow at 4 percent per year amid consumers’ pent-up demand, reported AEW. This implies that the worst might be over for retailers and investors, although the precise speed of the recovery might vary with vaccine distribution rates.
In a reversal from the recent trend, ecommerce penetration rates are projected to come down in 2021. Although the vaccines should allow for a return to in-store shopping, ecommerce penetration rates are unlikely to drop to pre-COVID-19 levels.
The restaurant, health and clothing segments were the most negatively impacted during the lockdowns. But they are also expected to see the strongest 2021–22 rebound. Grocery stores were the most resilient during the lockdowns and are forecasted to show low, stable growth.
As the final lockdowns are lifted in the first half of 2021, it is reasonable to expect footfall to recover similarly to what was observed during the 2020 non-lockdown periods.
