Export receipts in US$ terms soared by a whopping 60.6 percent year-over-year (y/y) in January-February combined, reported Oxcord Economics. However, the headline growth figure was distorted by the timing of the coronavirus outbreak in China last year, as well as a sharp rise in export prices in recent months. In real, sequential terms (which provides a clearer picture on underlying momentum), the export volumes are estimated to raise 4 percent in January-February from fourth quarter last year, supported by an improvement in global demand.
Export momentum in the near term will probably ease temporarily. New export orders fell recently following a surge in coronavirus cases in many advanced economies during the northern hemisphere winter. But with cases now falling and vaccinations gaining pace, the strong global economic recovery that we expect this year should support China’s export outlook going forward.
Imports in US$ terms also surged, but less than exports. On
