Exports surprised on the upside in June, shrugging off the impact of the temporary Shenzhen port closure and other local supply chain bottlenecks, according to Oxford Economics. The headline U.S. dollar numbers suggest that in real, sequential terms shipments rose strongly in June, after having moderated earlier on from the record levels of early-2021.
Export volumes are expected to return to sequential growth in H2 following the recent softness. Shipments should pick up on strong global import demand and a gradual resolution of global supply chain bottlenecks.
Imports were slightly stronger than expected in June. Although much of the recent year-on-year increase was driven by surging commodity prices, Oxford Economics estimates that import volumes rose month-on-month in June. The firm expects imports will continue to expand sequentially as domestic growth momentum gains pace again in second half.
Growth in goods exports in US$ terms picked up to 32.2 percent
