In the latest edition of The Chief Economist, Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO, describes the current U.S. economy as an “almost” economy — one that appears healthy on the surface but behaves differently from past cycles. Economic output and consumer spending remain resilient, yet job growth has been unusually subdued, creating an expansion that looks strong but lacks the employment momentum typically seen in recoveries. The labor market reflects a similar dynamic, with unemployment near historic lows but hiring activity cooling, leaving conditions stable but less dynamic than expected. Severino also points to unusually strong productivity gains, which may be allowing the economy to grow while requiring fewer workers. More broadly, the expansion has felt structurally stable but cycli
