In its latest research, AEW is expecting €42.5 billion ($46.1 billion) of real estate loan defaults resulting in projected €14.5 billion ($15.7 billion) of CRE loan losses for lenders in the next three years.
These estimates relate to the €572 billion ($621 billion) of European real estate loans originated between 2018 and 2021 and equate to 7.5 percent and 2.5 percent of defaults and losses, respectively. This projection is in line with levels seen in European CMBS loan losses post-global financial crisis (GFC). AEW projected these figures using its three-step methodology and also estimates that retail-backed loan losses across Europe could stand at 11 percent (€9 billion/$10 billion) of the €80 billion ($87 billion)) of those originated in 2018-2021. In Germany losses could reach 4.5 percent (about €7 billion ($8 billion) – including €2 billion ($2 billion) in German retail) of the €157 billion ($170 billion) of German property-backed loans originated
