Research Reports

In today’s volatile financial markets, private commercial real estate investors face a fundamental challenge: market opacity makes real-time pricing hard to gauge. This report argues that investors should pay closer attention to public market signals — such as corporate bond yields and shortterm Treasury rates — as timely indicators of real estate pricing, even though bridging public and private markets is difficult in practice. Recent episodes of extreme market volatility (for example, sudden swings in equity markets following surprise tariff announcements) highlight how quickly public markets react to new information, whereas private property value changes are observable only after months of closed transactions. We will show that movements in public financial metrics often precede changes in private-market real estate pricing, offering institutional investors a leading indicator of where valuations are heading.

A global study on trust in Artificial Intelligence (AI) reveals more than half of people globally are unwilling to trust AI, reflecting an underlying tension between its obvious benefits and perceived risks. Chinese respondents provided some of the highest scores in the study on trust, acceptance, excitement, and optimism around AI.

Evolving macroeconomic dynamics suggest – as they did in 1Q’25 – markets are still “skiing” the equivalent of a black diamond moguls run, albeit now amidst a fog of uncertainty as it relates to US trade policy and tariffs. Notwithstanding, multifamily is equipped for a smoother route against a slope crowded with other sectors and alternatives given overall healthy fundamentals, its underlying characteristics and resiliency.

This quarter we are initiating publication of our quarterly global commercial real estate (CRE) outlook. And the timing looks quite auspicious. Midway through the second quarter, we still know too little about the exact magnitude, breadth, and duration of tariffs that are rising amidst what looks like a nascent trade war. Accordingly, when we published our quarterly economic outlook two weeks ago, we used a scenario-based approach because of this ongoing uncertainty. While we are not going to fully replicate that approach here, we will focus on the implications for CRE in each of the major investment regions of the world with a nod toward the prevailing lack of clarity on trade policy. Ultimately, what emerges is a view of global CRE that remains broadly positive, even if less so than in the absence of rising tariffs.

Despite this stark macro outlook, European markets present a strong opportunity for growth in logistics real estate. As a result of several converging, sector-specific fundamentals, the logistics asset class is poised to decouple from the trajectory of the European economy and continue its upward climb. Major western European logistics markets offer the right structural drivers to benefit from the rapid rise of eCommerce and outperform both the regional economy and competing asset classes.

While the U.S. for-sale housing market is one of the largest asset classes in the country, it remains undercapitalized by institutional investors. Total value of U.S. for-sale housing market: ~$45 trillion, data from the Federal Reserve and John Burns Research. New homes sold annually: ~$1.1 trillion, based on Census Bureau and industry reports. Institutional capital penetration: Still relatively low compared to income- producing Commercial Real Estate (CRE). Given this scale, there is significant room for institutional capital to invest in the US for- sale housing market. One compelling strategy to consider is Acquisition, Development, and Construction (AD&C) lending. This paper examines the risk-return profile of AD&C and compares it to other CRE asset classes.

Discover four potential macroeconomic scenarios and their impact on the real estate cycle over the next 12 months. Additionally, learn about the potential impacts of renewed tariffs and a potential trade war across the primary asset markets, including private debt and equity, public markets, and infrastructure. Investors will need to pay sharp attention to both asset-level fundamentals and evolving macroeconomic signals to effectively navigate the landscape.

Uncertainty continued to shape the first quarter, magnified by changing government and trade policies. Of note amidst this landscape is the cap rate expansion in the Data Center sector, largely a reaction to a few newsworthy events in the sector, such as the DeepSeek announcement. While the impact of increased tariffs remains to be seen, vacancy rates have stayed low and Data Center REITs continue to sign new leases, indicating that fundamentals remain strong for now. Our Q1 2025 REIT Cap Rate Perspective Summary Report offers more detailed insight into this sector, as well as our perspective across the REIT market.

In this report, we analyze the impact of President Trump’s key policies on infrastructure, especially highlighting less obvious aspects and second-order effects. In our view, the recent market turbulence only strengthens our conviction that infrastructure is the ideal investment during times of uncertainty.

This report describes the key trends in Australia's main real estate and infrastructure markets for 2025, including a spotlight on how Australian real asset investments are well positioned in a period of structural change.