Intuitively, we tend to assume that an investment manager who consistently has outperformed the benchmark is likely to continue to outperform the benchmark. And, conversely, we tend to assume that an investment manager who consistently has underperformed the benchmark is likely to continue to underperform. We also tend to assume that a manager with its own capital at risk is more likely to have its interests aligned with the interests of its investor clients. To the best of my knowledge, there’s absolutely zero evidence to support either of these contentions.