- July 1, 2015: Vol. 7, Number 7

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What time is it?: Time for a potential problem analysis

by Geoffrey Dohrmann

What time is it on the real estate market cycle clock? Where are we in the cycle? That question has been coming up a lot lately. Most of the people we’re talking with believe we have now left the high-noon recovery period in the United States and are probably somewhere around 15 minutes into the expansion period. (Next phase: oversupply — but that’s still a long way off.) And across Asia Pacific property markets, leasing and investment activity generally continues to grow on the heels of looser monetary policy in the region.

Whenever we enter into a new time or phase on the clock, investors face a whole new array of risks. But how do you best manage those risks?

With respect to risk management, probably as many approaches exist as there are risks. A lot of these are quantitative and, quite frankly, too many of them don’t work very well.

The one that makes the most sense to me — and that has the added

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