A total of 29 private equity real estate funds recorded final closings during first quarter 2016, raising an aggregate total of $18.9 billion, according to IREI’s FundTracker database. Although the number of funds closed is exactly the same number closed in first quarter 2015 and three more than in 2014, the amount of capital raised has fallen significantly. In first quarter 2014, 26 funds closed with an aggregate total of $23.7 billion in commitments. 2015 saw 29 funds raising a total of $32.2 billion.

When looking at numbers, it is hard to distinguish the beginning of a new trend from a blip in an established trend line. For the past several years, a significant portion of the entire year’s capital has been raised by funds closing in the first quarter. If the $18.9 billion raised in first quarter 2016 is merely an anomaly in an otherwise continuous upward trend line, all is right with the world. But if it turns out to be the beginning of a downward trend, re