The Game Changes: The Euro Zone Sovereign Debt Crisis Is Moving Slowly Toward an Effective Solution
When Lehman Bros collapsed back in 2008, a colleague of mine jokingly argued, in mock earnest biblical tones, that after seven fat years the real estate industry should expect seven lean years. Five years into a deleveraging of epic proportions, that prediction doesn’t seem far wrong. Fundraising, debt refinancing and leasing of all but the most prime assets continue to be challenging, resulting in a two-tier market — the best versus the rest.
This time last year, we wrote that “2012 is likely to be a year in which real estate fundamentals are trumped by the major macropolitical decisions made in the euro zone, and beyond,” and that remains the case. In common with most investment houses, we advocated a cautious macro approach, investing in well-let properties in the euro zone safe havens, the Nordic countries and southern England, rolling up our sleeves and maintaining income. In a handful of markets, we argued that the time might be right to venture into “good sec