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Surge in write-downs leads to largest negative return since GFC
- March 1, 2023: Vol. 35, Number 3

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Surge in write-downs leads to largest negative return since GFC

by Jeffrey Fisher

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) quarterly total return was –3.50 percent for the fourth quarter, which is the first negative return since the COVID-19 pandemic affected second quarter 2020 and the largest decline since the global financial crisis in 2009. The quarterly return consisted of 0.95 percent from income and –4.45 percent from appreciation.

The decline reflected a significant increase in the number of write-downs during the quarter, which saw the number of properties written down double from about 35 percent to 70 percent.

The –3.50 percent return is the unleveraged return for “operating properties” held by institutional investors throughout the United States. As of quarter-end there were 4,672 properties with leverage, and the weighted average loan-to-value ratio was 42 percent. Lower unleveraged returns coupled with higher interest rates magnified the negative return for those properties with leverage. Properties with leverage had a total quarterly

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