“When you launch in a rocket, you’re not really flying that rocket. You’re just sort of hanging on.” — Michael P. Anderson, U.S. astronaut

Heading into 2022 feels a bit like being strapped to a rocket. The first 20 months following the COVID-19 recession could be considered the “booster stage.” And, much like the rockets of the Apollo Program, the U.S. economy has been propelled higher thanks to 1) rapid advances in science, 2) complex technological innovation and 3) mountains of government financial support.

But now the booster stage is nearly over as the effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus fade. We are entering the “cut-off stage” when the rocket engines cease firing, and we anxiously await confirmation that the U.S. economy has reached escape velocity. We assume — or at least hope — the people who designed, built and fired the rocket are much smarter than we are, assuring our safe passage into the unknown. In the meantime, the best