- March 2012: Vol. 24 No. 3

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South of the Border: Mexico

by Hugh Macdonnell and Onay Payne

Commercial real estate assets in Mexico have historically rewarded careful investors with attractive risk-adjusted returns, both on a relative and an absolute basis. While domestic crime stories have attracted media attention, our primary approach to Mexico continues to be analytical. Evaluating key macroeconomic and real estate metrics in Mexico shows real estate fundamentals are aligned, creating favorable return potential.


Mexico’s population is growing (108.4 million in 2010 and forecast to reach nearly 121 million by 2030) and predominantly young. The 30–44 age cohort — typically considered the peak earning years — is projected by the Mexican government to grow during the next 20 years.

The employment outlook in Mexico has been improving. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline from recession levels, and we anticipate that job growth will increase economic opportunities.

Mexico’s real gross domestic product (GDP) recov

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