The right outlet: No discounting the discount luxury outlet sector in China
It finally seems that some form of trade resolution between the United States and China is close. While existing tariffs may remain, a de-escalation of tension is important for the global economy. It will reduce business uncertainties and open up dialogue to ease bilateral tensions across a wide range of issues, from technology to investments. Uncertainty in other forms remains; China’s efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak brought an extended halt to productivity after Chinese New Year, which is highly likely to significantly impact short-term economic growth in China. A slowdown in the first half of 2020 will further have a meaningful impact on global growth, through tourism and manufacturing, due to supply chain shocks.
External risks aside, and despite the slowing Chinese economy, the Chinese consumer story remains intact. After all, China currently accounts for one-third of world growth, larger than the combined share of Europe, Japan and the United States.