The global construction industry has absorbed a raft of intertwined headwinds in the past two years, creating a historically complex development-risk environment that will endure for some time.

Identifying and managing these risks is complicated by their rapid evolution and dynamic interaction, while each risk compounds the impact of the next. The COVID-19 cri-sis disrupted supply chains and logistics operations, which reduced the availability of materials and labour. In turn, these supply-side pressures pushed up prices and created runaway inflation worldwide. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, already rising energy prices surged higher after EU sanctions were imposed on the Kremlin, while production of key construction materials out of Ukraine was thwarted.

At the monetary policy level, the central banks’ response to multi-decade high inflation has so far been a near synchronised global tightening of financial conditions, ending almost 15 years of ul