Publications

- January 1, 2017: Vol. 11, Number 01

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Recession risks: Uncertainty is the new normal in today’s investment environment

by Chua Chor Hoon and Wilson Liew

1 Eight years after the global financial crisis, concerns have resurfaced over whether the next global recession is due, as suggested by global market volatility and widespread economic downgrades concurrent with quantitative easing becoming increasingly less effective. Unexpected events have also become more commonplace, such as the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We take a closer look here at three major regions/countries — the United States, Europe and China — to identify risk factors that could precipitate another global recession. United States: new president, new unknowns Historically, recessions in the United States since 1945 have occurred once every five years, on average, but we are already seven years into the current expansion cycle. Fundamentally, the US economy seems to have avoided stall speed, although certain areas still look fragile. Controversial figure

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