Post-stimulus: With U.S. monetary policy going back to normal, it’s time to reconsider the commercial property investment outlook
Economic historians have written extensively about financial crises and their aftermath. Broadly speaking, a major financial crisis is typically followed by an elongated recovery period marked by distinct subperiods of recapitalization, economic recovery and, ultimately, economic expansion.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continuing to today, the Federal Reserve has initiated a series of extraordinary monetary policies designed to facilitate the recapitalization and recovery phases of the financial crisis and, hopefully, establish the foundation for broad-based economic expansion. These policies included an unprecedented expansion of the U.S. monetary base and the lowering of overnight borrowing rates to zero. In hindsight, these policies were clearly designed to greatly increase liquidity within the financial system and to accelerate the broader deleveraging process by promoting the reinflation of asset values.
Throughout 2013, senior Federal Reserve