Political scenarios: Will 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. return to economic relevance, or is it merely rhetoric?
With the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series for the first time since 1908, the city of Cleveland winning its first professional sports championship since 1964, the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union, and Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election, it seems anything is possible — even government policy returning to economic relevance. But will we see government policy play a decisive role in the direction of the economy in the near term?
Will campaign rhetoric become policy reality?
In the days following the surprising election results, equity and fixed-income markets were betting President-elect Trump’s proposals favorable to economic growth, such as infrastructure spending and tax cuts, would be implemented, while discounting the likelihood of campaign rhetoric surrounding trade. In spite of these views, they are not a certainty, and significant questions remain. How will government policies related to the