Publications

- September 1, 2020: Vol. 14, Number 8

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In my opinion: Differing views on real estate’s prospects are making it hard to form concrete investment plans

by Marek Handzel

Any idea where we are in the supposed “Nike swoosh” shaped recovery?

If you subscribe to the views expressed by The Economist Intelligence Unit, then we are now climbing away from the bottom of the bend. It says that most global econo-mies will start to recover in the third quarter, posting dou-ble-digit rates of quarterly growth, but not getting back to pre-2020 levels until 2022. This cautious optimism stands in stark contrast to the pessimists out there, such as the OECD, which fears that economies are too reliant on central bank action to be able to withstand any further shocks such as a large second wave of COVID-19 hospitalisations.

Ultimately, the speed and nature of the recovery will come down to consumer confidence — in its very rawest form. As Tony Smedley, head of private equity in Europe for Heitman recently pointed out, this is very much a human-related crisis.

Will people go out and buy more food, sit in a cinema next to each other, or travel

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