The persistence of high inflation — both in the investment markets and for households — has been a key issue in recent years. Less than a year ago, 16 Nobel Prize–winning economists signed a joint letter warning of what they saw as economic risks if former President Donald Trump were to receive a second term, including reignited inflation.

President Donald Trump was reelected in November 2024, and since he took office in late January, analysts are nearly unanimous that not only the world’s largest economy but also its major trade partners face unprecedented risks of simultaneously higher inflation as well as slower growth.

Analysis by Oxford Economics suggests US consumer price inflation could reach up to 4.5 percent in 2025 if the tariff regime on Chinese imports persists. By now (and at the time of publication), the tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China have reached 145 percent on Chinese exports to the United States and 125 percent on US ex