- June 2008: Vol. 20 No. 6

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Luck and Smart Thinking: We’ll Need Both to Dodge a Deep Recession

by Claude Gruen

It is going to take a little bit of luck and some very adroit broken-field running from policy makers in the central banks of the United States and European money centers to keep the current economic contraction from dropping into a deep and relatively long recession. But given this knowledge, I believe the odds are with the runners.

The luck I refer to is the expanding search for oil, and the relative price stability that should follow. But even if oil prices settle downward and policy makers succeed in curing and calming the dysfunctional financial institutions in western capital markets, more needs to be done.

Consumers are now holding tight to their wallets, and it will take more enticing products to ease their cash flow once again. Just as retailers will have to adapt to this change, real estate providers, too, will have to think strategically.

This is a new market, and if the business cycle is to turn around, real estate professionals will need to earn ret

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