Publications

- February 1, 2018: Vol. 30, Number 2

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Late-cycle investing: Operating skills step to the fore

by Doug Poutasse

We are 10 years out from the last peak in employment in the United States. By most measures, that means we are in the later stages of this cycle. It is critical to remember that not all cycles are the same. Today’s economy has several important differences from prior cycles, and those differences have important implications for real estate investment decisions.

First and most obvious, this recovery follows the most serious global economic downturn in our lifetime. Second, the first years of the recovery in the United States were held back by domestic fiscal issues, and continued spasms of economic and capital-market dislocations in Europe. 2017 was the first year of global synchronized growth, despite the fact economic strengthening was often overshadowed by news of disasters and geopolitical tensions. Third, while most prior cycles have had clear winner and loser industries and regions, this cycle has offered perhaps the most pronounced gap between the “haves” and “h

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