Publications

- July 1, 2019: Vol. 13, Number 7

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Cycle? What cycle?: Any talk about the cycle has become taboo in many circles

by Geoffrey Dohrmann

Uncertainty continues to surround the Brexit saga, which, in turn, continues to disrupt the FX markets, raising the costs and the risks of cross-border investing for UK and EU investors.

The result has been a significant slowdown in capital flow from the UK and Europe into US and Asia Pacific property markets. This, coupled with the slowdown in Chinese capital flows, can only serve to extend the current property-market cycle in these regions.

It’s interesting that around the globe, investors no longer want to talk much about where we are in the cycle. It has even become a bit politically incorrect at our various editorial advisory board meetings around the globe to talk about being late in the cycle. Almost everyone admits, no one really knows what the proper “length of a cycle” should be anyway.

A well-known researcher at one of our global sponsors recently confided to me personally, off the record, that he doesn’t really believe in cycles anymore. They

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