A real estate debt maturity wall totalling €315 billion during the next two years is expected to open up lucrative investment opportunities for institutional investors.

Using data from AEW, MSCI and Moody’s, Empira Group estimates some €130 billion of loans to reach maturity in 2025, with a further €185 billion to need refinancing by the end of 2026.

A loan financing gap of €86 billion is already set to emerge in Europe from the third quarter of 2024 alone, according to AEW, which represents 13 percent of all European real estate loans maturing between 2025 and 2027, and shows the size of the market that alternative lenders could work in.

Empira Group says office properties will have the largest share of refinancing needs, with loans maturing worth around €50 billion in 2025 and €65 billion in 2026. The residential and logistics sectors are also seriously affected, with annual maturity volumes in the double-digit billions. Since many of these loans