After more than 80 years of spectacular growth, higher education enrollment is declining. During the second half of the 20th century, the share of young people attending college steadily increased, peaking in 2011. Since then, the share has declined. This decline in college enrollment reflects two factors: the smaller recent cohorts of American high school graduates and the smaller share that is attending higher education institutions.

Decline in high school graduates

The number of U.S. high school graduates is estimated to peak in 2025 and then decline by 13 percent by 2041. The graduation rate of high school students is not expected to meaningfully change over this period. Rather, this is the result of a smaller cohort of young people of high school age.

According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the vast majority of states are expected to have substantially fewer high school graduates by 2040. The few states or distr