Half full or half empty? Rising interest rates and commercial real estate
The brief period following the 2016 U.S. presidential election has been the best of times for equities and the worst of times for fixed income. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 13 percent above its pre-election level, increasing from 18,260 the day before the election to 20,663 as of the end of March. Conversely, yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased more than 40 percent, at one point moving from 1.83 percent the day before the presidential election to a high of 2.60 percent afterward.
Although these two benchmarks went in different directions subsequent to the election, both are being driven by market expectations of significantly rising rates and of expansionary fiscal, regulatory and trade policies. But is this scenario a certainty and, if so, how should commercial real estate investors react?
Great expectations, great uncertainty
As we wrote in “