Global travel is not back where it was, but there are signs of a recovery, with activity up in 2021 relative to the lows of 2020, according to a report by Tourism Economics. Some of this recovery will include overseas tourists visiting the United States, which would certainly help the performance of real estate in those markets that depend on tourism. Businesspeople are coming back as well, which could also include acquisition professionals looking to buy commercial properties, but investors should not make a blanket assumption that this recovery will lead to a flood of cross-border capital.

Tracking the activity of cross-border investors provides a signal about market pricing, as these groups usually have lower costs of capital than smaller investors active in a limited number of markets. Should these investors flood back into markets, prices could react sharply. Arguably, though, border closures due to COVID-19 never affected where these investors bought assets, so why shou