Publications

- November 1, 2021: Vol. 33, Number 10

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Falling unemployment

by Loretta Clodfelter

The United States added 194,000 jobs in September, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the small hiring gain in September, the unemployment rate fell 40 basis points from August to 4.8 percent.

Caleb Thibodeau, associate, global capital markets, for Validus Risk Management, says the falling unemployment rate could have implications for the Federal Reserve’s announced tapering schedule: “Regardless of higher expectations around added payrolls, the Fed’s mandate of ‘seeking maximum employment’ while maintaining price stability could reasonably be reworded as ‘seeking minimum unemployment.’ This would imply progress with today’s report in the eyes of the Fed. At the most recent Fed meeting, Powell indicated that some members of the FOMC had already been convinced of ‘substantial further progress’ in the labor market. Hence, even an unchanged unemployment number may have qualified for some Fed officials as reaso

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