- May 1, 2019: Vol. 11, Number 5

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Cycle drama: Managers question traditional cycle thinking

by Marek Handzel

Managers are questioning traditional real estate–cycle point indicators, given the realignment of macroeconomics in a post–global financial crisis world.

Speaking at Institutional Real Estate, Inc’s 2019 Visions, Insights & Perspectives (VIP) Europe conference on 20 February 2019 in Amsterdam, a number of GP representatives pointed to the rise of supposedly-uncorrelated real estate sectors, coupled with persistent low interest rates and inflation, as evidence investors are having to adapt to a “new normal” economic environment.

Andrew Thornton, CEO at Principal Real Estate Europe, said it could be dangerous to assume real estate was in the midst of a normal cycle.

“This cycle is back to front,” he said. “We saw the cap rates compress because of a different interest-rate environment, and we’ve now seen economic growth come through, and we’re seeing income growth coming through.

“Things have changed,” he noted, suggestin

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