- June 1, 2020: Vol. 32, Number 6

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Commercial real estate returns lowest since financial crisis

by Jeffrey Fisher

The first-quarter return for institutional investors as measured by the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) was 0.71 percent, which was a decrease from the 1.55 percent return for the prior quarter. This is the lowest return since fourth quarter 2009 in the midst of the global financial crisis that led to the Great Recession. The NPI is an unleveraged return for what is primarily “core” real estate held by institutional investors throughout the United States. The total return of 0.71 percent consisted of an income return of 1.10 percent from net operating income (NOI) and a capital return (change in value net of capital expenditures) of –0.39 percent. This is the first negative capital return since first quarter 2010.

The NCREIF Market Value Index (MVI) tracks how estimated sale prices are changing over time for properties in the NCREIF Property Index. Market values had been rising steadily since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2010. But this quarter the index fl

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