Not only do investors want to know how high interest rates will rise — given the denominator effect on capital flows into real estate and capital market liquidity as debt-backed buyers retreat — but the more important question for real assets investors is, “Where will interest rates, and inflation, settle once we’re through this economic and capital market correction?” writes Sabina Reeves, chief economist, CBRE Investment Management, in the firm’s House View: Macro Outlook, Q1 2023 report, released 16 February 2023.

In a nutshell, CBRE IM’s global macro forecasts are now less pessimistic. The firm expects a delayed and softer US recession, a softer European recession, and a stronger China rebound.

Long-term structural challenges continue to weigh on the global economy, including an overhang of government debt, demographic headwinds (excluding North America) and the cost of transitioning to a lower-carbon economy. But the mix of modestly positive