- February 1, 2013: Vol. 7, Number 2

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An Unequal Burden: Changes in the Dependency Ratio across Europe in the Coming Decades Will Shape Individual Real Estate Markets

by Simon Wallace

The world is forecast to experience huge demographic shifts over the coming 90 years. Changes in population size and configuration will have profound implications for economic and political power, resource distribution and aggregate demand — including the demand for real estate.

The current population of Europe (including Russia) is estimated to be 740 million. According to the latest United Nations (UN) forecasts, the outlook for Europe is one of gradual population decline throughout this century, falling by 20 million over the next 40 years, and by a further 45 million during the second half of the century.

This overall decline in population masks significant national differences. Over the next 40 years, the largest absolute falls in population are set to be seen in Russia (17 million), Ukraine (9 million), Germany (8 million) and Poland (3 million). These forecasts also indicate significant population increases in countries such as the United Kingdom (11 million),

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