In the fall of 2015, ULI surveyed 48 real estate analysts and economists, asking for their predictions for real estate capital markets, property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents. The 46-page report, ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, was upbeat, projecting solid increases in all sectors “except not so much gain in retail.” This three-year forecast (for 2015 through 2017) portends mostly favorable real estate conditions.

In 2016:

•          GDP growth is expected to reach a healthy 2.8 percent.

•          Unemployment is expected to decline to 4.9 percent.

•          Inflation is expected to continue to increase “to a steady and healthy 2 percent.”

•          Ten-year Treasury rates are projected to rise to 2.8 percent.

•          Issuance of commercial mortgage–backed securities is projected to increase steadily to $130 billion.

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